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On September 10, 2016 By In Mixed Martial Arts

UFC 203 Statistical Matchup Analysis – Miocic vs. Overeem

“The Ultimate Fighting Championship heavyweight title has not been kind to the home team lately. Cain Velasquez lost his championship to Fabricio Werdum in front of a supportive Mexico City crowd; Werdum, in turn, lost it to Stipe Miocic in front of his Brazilian countrymen. Miocic will now try to buck the trend by defending his belt for the first time in his hometown of Cleveland, where he faces Alistair Overeem on Saturday in the UFC 203 main event. Miocic has fought a combined 3:41 in his two fights this year. This will be his third fight of 2016 and the fifth straight bout in which he fights a former champion of some sort.

Standing opposite the defending champ will be Overeem, a longtime MMA veteran who has fought in virtually every major promotion during the course of his career. Overeem has undergone a recent career resurgence following a shaky start in the UFC. The former K-1, Dream and Strikeforce champion went 2-3 in his first five UFC fights, but he has since reeled off four straight wins, three of which came by knockout or technical knockout. This will be his second fight of 2016 and the fourth consecutive bout against a champion or former champion.

There are a lot of angles to this matchup, so let’s see what the Tale of the Tape tells us…”

 

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On August 19, 2016 By In Mixed Martial Arts

Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz Statistical Analysis

“The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s most marketable rivalry will finally get its second breath.

After a superlative 2015 campaign, the outspoken Conor McGregor entered his March showdown with Nate Diaz with an aura of destiny. At that point, McGregor was undefeated in the UFC and had not tasted defeat since an early career submission loss in 2010. After the Irishman tapped to a rear-naked choke from Diaz, the rematch was booked for UFC 200, but a maelstrom of drama surrounding press obligations and faux-retirement unfolded, pushing it back until now. This will be McGregor’s second fight above 145 pounds and his second fight of 2016.

On the other side of cage at UFC 202 on Saturday in Las Vegas will be longtime MMA antihero and cult favorite Diaz, who notched the most important win of his career when he throttled McGregor at UFC 196. Since then, he has become a bona fide star in the sport. The winner of “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 5 has nearly a decade of UFC fights under his belt, as well as stints in World Extreme Cagefighting and a one-off Strikeforce bout, making him a true veteran of the sport. Diaz is 3-3 in the UFC fighting above lightweight, and this will be his second fight of the year.

There are a lot of narrative and stylistic threads running through this fight, so let us see what the Tale of the Tape says…”

 

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On July 30, 2016 By In Mixed Martial Arts

Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley Stat Analysis

“In the post-Georges St. Pierre welterweight world, the Ultimate Fighting Championship welterweight division continues to get progressively more exciting.

Robbie Lawler has been busy stringing together an unprecedented spree of classic fights. Most recently, he took a controversially close split decision in a back-and-forth affair with Carlos Condit on Jan. 2. Before that, he authored a signature win in an all-time great bout against Rory MacDonald in July 2015, which was his first title defense and only fight of the year. The unlikely late-career resurgence for the longtime vet has been a true feel-good story; prior to his return to the UFC, Lawler went 3-5 in Strikeforce with several uninspired performances. Now he is two wins away from tying the title defense record of mentor and former coach Pat Miletich.

Standing in his way at UFC 201 on Saturday in Atlanta is fellow Strikeforce alum Tyron Woodley. The NCAA All-American wrestler has had a sterling-if-not-slightly-underappreciated career thus far. After failing to capture the Strikeforce welterweight championship in 2012, Woodley has gone 5-2 in the UFC, losing only to Jake Shields and Rory MacDonald, the former a much-maligned split decision loss most felt was a robbery. Despite being among the elite welterweights for half a decade, “The Chosen One” has surprisingly little to show for it, making this a high-stakes bout for him. Woodley has not fought since UFC 183 in January 2015.

Here is what the Tale of the Tape has to say…”

 

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On July 5, 2016 By In Mixed Martial Arts

UFC 200 Statistical Matchup Analysis – Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier

“Of all the big fights coming up this weekend, this one deserves to be the main event’s main event.

Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier have been the centerpieces of the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s light heavyweight division for the past two years. They were originally slated to fight at UFC 178 in September 2014, but an injury to incumbent champion Jones postponed it to UFC 182 four months later. By then, Jones had already strung together a record-setting seven light heavyweight title defenses, while Cormier was 2-0 at 205 pounds. “Bones” took a clear though at times competitive decision win over Cormier before the UFC stripped him of his title for outside-of-the-cage shenanigans. After a lengthy time away, Jones made his comeback in April, when he coasted through Ovince St. Preux for the interim light heavyweight title. This will be the first time since 2013 that Jones fights more than once in a year.

On the other side of the cage at UFC 200 on Saturday in Las Vegas will be the former Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix champion and current UFC light heavyweight champion, though the latter accolade was only available once Jones was out of the picture. Since losing to Jones, Cormier has won two straight, choking out Anthony Johnson for the title and defending it in a razor-close decision against Alexander Gustafsson. Cormier has solidified his spot as the best 205-pounder in Jones’ absence, but that absence has always loomed over his championship claims, making this a high-stakes fight for his legacy in the promotion and the sport. Since joining the UFC, Cormier has fought at least twice every year, but this will be his first fight of 2016.

There is a lot to unpack in this fight, both from narrative and statistical perspectives. Let us see how the Tale of the Tape can shed some light on the matchup…”

 

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On June 3, 2016 By In Mixed Martial Arts

Luke Rockhold vs. Michael Bisping – Statistical Analysis

“Not so fast, injury bug. The Ultimate Fighting Championship middleweight title will still be up for grabs.

After dethroning Chris Weidman in decisive fashion in December, Luke Rockhold had been gearing up to rematch the man he beat for the title. A neck injury put the bout on hold, and with Ronaldo Souza forfeiting his next-in-line status due to post-fight injuries of his own, Michael Bisping was the logical choice to replace Weidman in the UFC 199 main event on Saturday in Los Angeles. After suffering a devastating loss to Vitor Belfort in his promotional debut in 2013, Rockhold has put together a five-fight, five-finish winning streak, including a dominant second-round submission win over Bisping. Rockhold fought twice in 2015, but this will be his first fight of 2016.

On the other side of the cage will be longtime veteran and “The Ultimate Fighter 3” winner Bisping. He entered the UFC as an undefeated prospect in 2006 and has been fighting at middleweight since 2008, making Bisping one of the longest-tenured fighters on the UFC roster in any weight class. In spite of that, this will be Bisping’s first appearance in a title fight, having lost in high-profile title eliminator matches to Dan Henderson in 2009 and Chael Sonnen three years after. Since losing to Rockhold in 2014, Bisping has won three straight, a streak he capped with a career-defining win over the legendary Anderson Silva in February. Thus, this will be his second fight of the year, matching the number of Octagon appearances he made in 2015.

While this may not be the first-choice title matchup for fight fans, there are intriguing narrative and stylistic elements to it. Here is what the Tale of the Tape says…”

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